Ethereum and the broader crypto market were among the most affected by the escalation and resolution of the Iran–Israel conflict. Now that the immediate geopolitical risks have subsided, crypto traders are once again turning their attention to market dynamics. 

(Bitcoin Bull Cycles) 

Historically, crypto bull cycles tend to follow a familiar pattern: Bitcoin leads the rally, followed by Ethereum and altcoins, which often deliver higher percentage returns. Notably, Bitcoin returns from these cycles have been decreasing by nearly a factor of four with each cycle, from halving to the peak. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach the 135,000–150,000 range, suggesting it still has one more leg up. 

So, when will Ethereum begin its rally? 

The first wave typically coincides with Bitcoin’s surge. After a consolidation or minor correction, Ethereum usually picks up momentum alongside Bitcoin. Then, as Bitcoin nears its cycle top, capital rotation often favors ETH and other altcoins, driving them to new highs with second and main rally. If this pattern holds, Ethereum’s time to shine may be just around the corner. In our November report, we projected the next major ETH rally to begin between August and October. All signs still support that view. 

Potential Catalysts: The “GENIUS” Act and Stablecoin Growth 

As with previous cycles, a major catalyst could ignite the rally. In 2021, it was the NFT and smart contract boom. This time, it could be the proposed stablecoin legislation known as the “GENIUS” Act. Most major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, and DAI operate on Ethereum or Ethereum Layer 2 networks. If passed, this bill could dramatically expand the stablecoin market, potentially by more than fivefold over the next 5–10 years, providing a major boost to Ethereum’s network usage. 

Additionally, the legal framework for stablecoins would likely accelerate smart contract adoption, further increasing demand for ETH and Layer 2s built on Ethereum. According to Grayscale’s March research report, this could substantially increase Ethereum’s revenue. With the Senate already passing the GENIUS Act and the House expected to vote before the August recess, this timeline supports our August–October ETH rally forecast. 

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Cuts and Frontloaded Tariff Effects 

Another signal could come from the Federal Reserve. So far, the effect of tariffs on inflation has been limited, as we predicted. This seems to have given some confidence to certain Fed members. Governors Bowman and Waller are already discussing the possibility of a rate cut in July. Ahead of Powell’s testimony, this will increase the pressure on him to support rate cuts. 

However, we expect the main inflationary pressure to emerge in mid-to-late summer. After that, stagflationary dynamics could persist until the end of the year or into the first quarter of 2026. This may limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates without risking an inflation flare-up. But by 2026, conditions will likely shift. The temporary inflationary effects of tariffs will have mostly faded, and with a slowing economy, the Fed may need to act quickly. 

Because of this, we expect one rate cut in 2025, followed by four cuts in 2026. 

In financial markets, rate hikes and cuts are often priced in well ahead of time. So it’s likely that some of the 2025–2026 cuts are already being priced in, and this effect will intensify over time. Along the way, periods of recession fear may dominate markets, causing temporary corrections but the broader trend is likely to remain upward. 

(ETHUSD) 

From another technical perspective, after the 2020–2021 rally, ETHUSD retraced approximately 85% of the move. Similarly, following the slower 2022–2025 rally, it again fell back to around 85% of the run. The most recent dip, triggered in April amid tariff-related market fears, has dominated recent price action. 

Following that sharp reaction, there appear to be no major obstacles remaining for the anticipated rally to begin. However, despite strong inflows into Ether ETFs, there is still no clear momentum shift visible on the chart. 

That said, as long as the price holds above $2,000, any downward moves could present buying opportunities for pre-rally positioning.