NVIDIA $NVDA

General Outlook 

With the rise of artificial intelligence worldwide, Nvidia is one of the most followed and closely watched stocks. Its Q2 2025 earnings were followed by all global markets, and it also holds the title of the first company to surpass $4 billion in market capitalization at $4,318. Therefore, its revenues and growth are being closely watched by all markets. In Singapore, the host of a lunch with wealth managers asked them: “Anyone here who doesn’t own Nvidia?” Not a single hand went up.” (FT, Ruchir Sharma, 02/12/2024, “The mother of all bubbles”). Below you can see the percentage difference in shipments between Nvidia and its closest competitors AMD and Intel.. 

(Orders By GPU Producers) 

With the development of Large Language Models (LLMs), AI models capable of working with up to 175 billion parameters began to require powerful graphics cards, and this was the real turning point for the company. With the emergence of Chat GPT (November 30, 2022), NVDA stock value gained 984.97% and 133.34% annualized. Finally, the company recently announced that it will acquire $5 billion worth of Intel Corp. stock and will invest $100 billion in OpenAI, signing a strategic partnership to expand its AI data center capacity to 10 gigawatts. 

(NVIDIA,Market Cap and Last Price) 

Fundamental Analysis  

Nvidia is fundamentally a highly self-sustainable company. Its ability to pay short-term debts is already evident in its liquidity ratios. All critical liquidity ratios are above world standards. However, just as too little liquidity is bad, too much liquidity is not a good thing. Excessive liquidity can easily pay short-term debts, which is fine. However, excess liquidity can lead to idle resources and poor investments. The key is the optimal liquidity ratio. However, the current picture suggests that Nvidia, despite its excess liquidity, is managing its resources effectively, and its investments in Intel and OpenAI will positively impact the company’s future earnings. 

(Liquidity Ratio) 

It’s also noteworthy that the current ratio is well above the industry average (S5INFT-Yellow). Expectations for the next two quarters indicate high liquidity. Naturally, high liquidity ratios also positively impact Net Working Capital. Regarding company revenues, revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $46.74 billion. The company’s largest revenue-generating subsidiary, Data Center, reported slightly below expectations, reaching $41.10 billion. We anticipate that Nvidia’s revenues have been growing steadily and will continue to do so. 

(Revunue’s by Subsidiaries) 

When we look at the EEG (Earnings Estimation Graph, EPS Adjusted), we don’t see any overvaluation or undervaluation below forecast lines. As analysts adjust their expectations upward, the price moves in that direction, so there’s no boom. 

(Earnings Estimation Graph, EPS Adjusted) 

The company’s profitability continues to increase regularly. EBITDA is increasing regularly and future estimates indicate that it will increase. The EV/EBITDA ratio was 43.37 in Q1 2025 and became 44.76 in Q2 2025, showing a 3.2% increase. The company’s quarterly Enterprise Value (EV) increased by 28% compared to the previous quarter, reaching $2,752,194.7. As the steady increase in sales continues, it reached 96,307.00 units in this quarter and the projection for the next 4 quarters predicts an increase of 71.55%.Inventory Turnover increased by 11.96% from 3.76 in the previous quarter to 4.21. The expected increase for the next four quarters is 9.26%. However, CCC (Cash Conversion Cycle) decreased by 14.14% to 86.5. While this appears negative, it is directly proportional to the company’s growth and the increasing difficulty of its operations. Many companies of similar size share the same fate, so it should be monitored with caution. However, a negative opinion about the company should not lead to a negative.The P/E ratio remains below its 5-year average of 69.2449, at 53.24. The expectation (blue) suggests the value should be lower. Therefore, the spread between the two could be a significant point. 

(NVIDIA P/E Ratio) 

NVIDIA’s P/Book value of 47.75 means the company is valued much higher than its book value. In other words, the market is pricing in factors such as the company’s future earnings potential, technology, and brand value with high expectations, beyond the assets on its balance sheet. 

(CAPM Variables) 

NVDIA’s beta coefficient is 1.890. Simply put, this ratio indicates the relationship between the asset and the market. Therefore, when it’s less than 1, sensitivity to market movements decreases. When it’s higher, we can say that market sensitivity increases. If the market declines, beta can cause problems. Using one of the most theoretical valuations, CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) ; we calculated the expected return as ER = RFR(Risk Free Rate) + β x (Expected Market Return – RFR) = %15.25343 annual return. Therefore, the expectation of future returns continues. 

Tech 

If we take a technical look at Nvidia (we used a one-year daily chart), the first thing that stands out is the uptrend that began on July 4, 2025. It was announced that Trump exempted some American companies from tariffs, and Nvidia was included in this package. Subsequently, the stock entered a pattern with the $185 level as resistance. This level has been tested numerous times, and we expect it to break out soon. Another thing that leads us to expect an upward break is the Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation and the ascending right triangle formed by the intersection of the $185 resistance in the trend. These three formations signal that the price will make an upward move. The 100-hour moving average continues its rise in a channel parallel to the trend. 

(NVIDIA Last Price,Formations) 

Our fibonacci retracement dated July 1st points to $186. If this level is broken, the rise could accelerate. Future news flow should be closely monitored here. The US government shutdown, in particular, could increase downside risks. Therefore, this issue should be closely monitored. 

(Fibonacci Retracement) 

The RSI indicator is still signaling that we are not in the overbought zone, so there is no overbought situation yet. Our moving average continues to give an upward signal. Spearman’s index confirms that the trend continues upward. 30-day volatility is currently low, and a steady upward move is possible. 

(NVIDIA:Last Price,Volatility,RSI,Spearman) 

Conculision 

As a result, both NVIDIA’s financial and technical data are generally optimistic. It’s no surprise to any of us that companies like Nvidia are in this position today. Therefore, positive signals about the future suggest that Nvidia is still considered relatively inexpensive. It’s clear that any bullishly patterned Nvidia will generate above-market returns. Of course, while nothing is certain, a series of negative news directly affecting the company could reverse this positive sentiment. For example, when tariffs were implemented, sentiment, especially in China, began to deteriorate. While the situation has improved, political and economic risks remain. Below, you can see the factor-100 normalized figures for gold, 10-year US Government Bond, and the S&P 500 index. It seems to have higher returns compared to other major assets.