AUDNZD has risen 11.64% since the 2025 dip, and the momentum is only accelerating. The currency had been moving flat since 2013 between 1 and 1.1450. The shift between the Australian and New Zealand economies in recent months has caused the balance to change in favor of the Australian dollar. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate rose to 3.85% at the last meeting, while inflation is at 3.20%, giving a 0.65% real rate. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate is at 2.25%, while inflation is at 3.10%, giving a 0.85% negative real rate. The difference makes it possible for a carry trade opportunity, and on top of that the RBA cash rate is expected to rise again in the coming months. This dynamic, along with rising demand for Australian minerals and metals, will support AUDNZD in the coming months.

While the fundamentals heavily support AUDNZD over the medium and perhaps long term, in the short term a downward reaction is possible. The midpoint of the 2011-2015 retreat is at 1.19, making it a strong resistance candidate. Any downward reaction could create a medium-term buying opportunity.