EURUSD has been under downward pressure since testing the 1.1425 resistance. The initial drag came from the announcement of a new 50% tariff on EU goods. However, just hours ago, three U.S. federal judges, one appointed during Trump’s presidency, blocked the recent tariffs, ruling them illegal. The judges rejected the claim that the president had the authority to impose such tariffs and gave the administration 10 days to remove them. The Justice Department has already filed a notice of appeal. 

This ruling sparked optimism that the ultra-high tariffs might be reversed, giving a short-term boost to the U.S. dollar. While the positive sentiment may not last, it could be enough to support a short-lived dollar rebound, especially as the Fed continues to steer clear of any hint of near-term rate cuts. 

(EURUSD 60M) 

EURUSD recently broke out of the long-term trendline that originated in 2008 and has since managed to hold above it after a successful retest. Following the sharp move from 1.02 to 1.15, price action has mostly turned sideways, likely a necessary consolidation phase after such a strong rally. This flat or slightly bearish movement may persist a while longer. 

In the short term, the upward trend channel broke last night following the U.S. tariff ruling. After briefly testing 1.1215, EURUSD is now retesting both the broken trendline and the 1.1275 resistance. Unless the pair can recapture this zone, the downward pressure may continue through the rest of the week. A loss of 1.1215 could open the door for a retest of the long-term trend support around the 1.1050–1.11 area. 

Key events that traders are watching include the ongoing legal battle over tariffs, rising U.S.-Russia tensions amid friction between Trump and Putin, upcoming U.S.–EU trade negotiations, and next week’s ECB meeting. All of these could be pivotal for EURUSD in the immediate future.