Bitcoin remains in its bull cycle despite the calm price action that crypto traders are not accustomed to. Our main outlook for this cycle has not changed. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle returns have decreased by nearly a factor of four with each new cycle, and it appears this cycle is following the same pattern. We target a cycle top between 135k and 150k, with the upper end of that range having room to extend depending on the path of the dollar index and stock markets. Increasing adoption of crypto and stablecoins is also likely to keep supporting Bitcoin. For more information about our cycle top predictive calculations please visit our tradingview post or our earlier analysis in our website. 

One of the key turning points could be the FOMC meeting in the coming week. A September rate cut is now almost certain. Job market warnings are getting stronger, and political pressure is rising. While the Fed is expected to cut, it could be a hawkish cut, depending partly on today’s CPI data. Tariff effects are gradually feeding into the economy but at a slower pace than expected. These effects are likely to keep upward pressure on inflation, although slowing shelter inflation provides some offset. The Fed is unlikely to pursue sharp cuts unless the economy slows considerably in a short period, since financial conditions remain relatively loose despite high rates. 

BTCUSD

Taking both cycle dynamics and Fed expectations into account, Bitcoin is likely to move toward the upper line of the green trend channel, which is currently near 127k. Historically, when Bitcoin nears or reaches its cycle top, alt season begins. The recent surge in Ethereum was the first concrete sign of an incoming alt season, which is likely to accelerate in the coming weeks. Bitcoin probably has two or three more short-term rallies left before reaching its cycle top, but altcoins, despite ETF dynamics, currently show even greater potential.