EURGBP is showing some negative technical signals ahead of today’s ECB meeting. After Trump announced new tariffs, the euro surprisingly gained against the pound. The U.S. imposed tariffs twice as large on the EU compared to the UK, with a minimum of 10% on UK goods. Despite this, the pound weakened more than expected. However, this move might prove to be temporary. 

The ECB is almost certainly to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut today, which is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets. The real focus will be on the outlook. Recent economic data, combined with the added pressure from tariffs, may push the ECB toward further rate cuts later this year. 

President Lagarde has been cautious for some time, offering few forward-looking signals. Today, markets will be closely watching for any hint of future easing. If Lagarde sounds more dovish than expected, the euro could come under renewed bearish pressure. 

(EURGBP) 

EURGBP has been forming a head and shoulders-like pattern since the start of last week. It may currently be developing the second shoulder, depending on how the price moves today. 

A combination of 8–13 hour moving average crosses and RMI sell signals on the 60-minute chart has successfully captured all local tops since April 7. These same signals have appeared again today. If they prove accurate once more, the 0.8525 support level will be key. This level represents the neckline of the potential head and shoulders pattern. 

However, if EURGBP moves above 0.8620, the bearish setup would be invalidated.