The dollar staged a false downside break before recovering sharply, leaving EURUSD in a firmly bearish position. Does this signal the end for euro bulls, especially with the Fed now appearing reluctant to cut rates in December? 

(FED Rate Cut Expectations) 

The latest FOMC minutes revealed that “many participants judged that it would likely not be appropriate” to cut rates in December, making a pause the base case. While poor incoming data could still shift the outlook, the overall tone has clearly turned more hawkish. Markets have slashed the implied probability of a December cut to around 30%, fueling fresh dollar strength. 

Yet the bigger picture hasn’t dramatically changed. Pricing for the end of 2026 still implies roughly 3.3 total cuts, only marginally lower than before the October meeting but at the same levels since the meeting on the contrary to December cut odds. In other words, rate cuts are delayed, not cancelled. 

Such delays are typically dollar-supportive in the short term, but the effect is usually temporary. The real driver for 2026 will be the actual pace of easing, which remains data-dependent. With the recent prolonged government shutdown likely exacerbating an already cooling labor market, upcoming releases will carry extra weight. Today’s continuing jobless claims figure, in particular, could offer an early clue and may prove more market-moving than usual. 

EURUSD

From a technical standpoint, EURUSD has been trapped in a steady downtrend channel since September. The 23.6 retracement level 1.15 is under heavy attack this November. A clean break below it would open the door to the lower channel boundary, currently near 1.1415 and declining. 

Euro bulls need a decisive break above the upper channel line to regain control. Until that happens, bears remain in the driver’s seat and will keep pressing the 1.15 zone in an attempt to resume the broader downtrend.