EURUSD made a strong move from 1.02 to 1.15, but now profit-taking has begun. Confidence in the dollar took a major hit due to the imposition of heavy tariffs. The euro capitalized on this weakness, and with the announcement of increased defense and technology spending in the EU, the rally gained momentum. As a result, EURUSD broke out of a 17-year-long trend. 

However, with momentum now fading and Trump shifting from an ultra-hawkish to a slightly less aggressive trade stance, EURUSD has started to correct. A minor negative surprise in the Merz vote and the upcoming second round of Romania’s elections are also adding downward pressure on the currency. 

(EURUSD Monthly Chart) 

EURUSD is now retesting the long-term trendline from the opposite side. So far, the price is holding above it, but the upward reaction has been weak. If EURUSD fails to stage a strong rebound today, even with the help of CPI data, it may fall back into the old trend channel. 

However, a new uptrend channel appears to be forming. Even if EURUSD re-enters the white trend channel and weakens in the medium term, both the technical and fundamental long-term outlooks continue to shift in favor of the euro. If a new dollar surge begins, it could create a good opportunity for long-term euro positioning, possibly from levels like 1.07 or even 1.048. 

For the medium-term direction, the 1.1050–1.11 zone will act as a key pivot area, especially in terms of multiple daily and weekly closes.