Gold is climbing while the U.S. Senate discusses the $3.3 trillion “Big, Beautiful Bill.” Currently, Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis are firmly opposed. If more than three Republican senators vote against the bill, it will fail. Trump cannot afford to lose more than two additional senators if he wants it to pass. At least five senators remain undecided or showing raising concerns over issues such as funding, spending cuts, the debt ceiling, and Medicaid. 

The bill has also reignited tensions between Trump and Elon Musk. Musk posted on X, criticizing Republican senators who support the bill: “Who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” He also threatened to campaign against them in their primaries. 

Trump fired back, targeting Musk over electric vehicle subsidies: “Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more rocket launches, satellites, or electric car production, and our country would save a fortune.” 

(Gold / 1-H Timeframe) 

Amid this political drama, gold staged an impressive intraday rally. After testing the year-to-date trendline (refer to our monthly report for details), it pushed higher and broke above the bearish trendline that had been in place since mid-June. That trendline was also aligned with the 200-hour simple moving average, making the breakout more significant. 

If gold can break above 3350, it may shift the medium-term trend from downward to upward. So far, the bond market remains calm in response to the market’s rate cut expectations. However, it remains unclear how long that stability will last.