Gold has formed a triangle pattern on the 15-minute timeframe. Given the recent flow of mostly gold-positive news, there is a chance that gold may attempt a breakout from this formation today.

From a demand perspective, the aggressive gold hoarding phase appears to be over, and “managed money” is gradually taking profits without triggering significant downward pressure. As a result, the medium-term outlook remains “sell the highs,” assuming current conditions persist. However, several short-term developments are providing support:

1- A dovish rate cut by the RBA
2- Jamie Dimon’s warning on market complacency amid stagflation risks
3- No Ukraine ceasefire in place, and Trump appears to be backing off threats against Russia following a call with Putin
4- Japan saw one of its weakest 20-year bond auctions
5- Several euro-positive headlines yesterday that could weigh on the dollar index

If these factors are enough to keep gold above the 3,200 support level today, a breakout above the 3,245 resistance could occur, potentially opening the way for a test of the major 3,270–3,290 resistance zone. Key levels to watch today are 3200 and 3245.