Today is a big day for a gold trader. Since the start of October, gold has contracted in a flat zone between 1745-1750 support and 1765-1770 resistance. For the last year, within 6 hours after the payrolls data, Gold move within plus/minus %2.1 as %0 as average. This means the maximum up or down move is expected to be %2.1.

Bloomberg’s survey suggests the data will be announced between 350-600 with %68 probability (1 standard deviation). Recent high ADP data and the end of pandemic unemployment checks might increase the upside surprise probability but the markets may have been already priced in some of the good data. A below 200-350k data may put a question mark of Fed’s tapering in November and cause a sharp surge for XAUUSD.

1745-1750 is the main support and 1765-1770 is the main resistance. If we look at the gold’s reaction percentage to payroll’s data and the technical support and resistances, for a negative surprise, gold may surge to the 1795-1800 zone and for a positive surprise, the 1720-1725 zone can be targeted. If the data is announced close to expectation, more undecided moves might be more probable.