Silver’s rally is still ongoing, but the momentum appears to be slowing down. Silver prices have been rising steadily since the first half of 2024, forming a clear trend channel. Sticky inflation, high government debt, and ongoing geopolitical risks have led markets to favor both gold and silver as safe havens. 

Now, Trump’s tariff policies are creating renewed turmoil in global trade. The uncertainty over how the global economy will evolve once the dust settles is driving investors toward safe havens again. U.S. bonds have also seen some inflows recently due to the Fed’s decision to slow quantitative tightening and Bessent’s commitment to pushing yields lower. However, the possibility of a mini inflation shock stemming from tariffs is causing investors to lean even more toward gold and silver. 

That said, both gold and silver have risen too far too fast over the past couple of years, and this could start to limit traders’ appetite. The recent shift in expectations suggesting tariffs may be less severe than feared has already reflected in prices. Silver has retreated below 33.20, and gold has pulled back to retest the 3000 level. 

(Silver) 

Technically, silver remains in an uptrend, and long-term traders may choose to hold their positions as long as that trend stays intact. However, in the medium term, price action has started to contract within an ascending wedge formation. As the name suggests, prices are still rising, but momentum is slowing. Due to this momentum shift, ascending wedge patterns often tend to break to the downside. 

In the short term, 33.20 serves as resistance, but the key medium-term resistance lies around 34.50, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the wedge. If silver makes a move toward that level, it could present a selling opportunity, potentially triggering a decline toward the lower line of the long-term trend channel, an area where a new buying opportunity might emerge. 

That said, uncertainty remains very high, and the news flow is particularly active. The outlook can shift rapidly depending on developments related to the tariff situation.