Silver is close to the upper line of the downtrend channel and is possibly about to decide whether to continue falling or make a breakout. Gold has been able to hold above 2000 due to global risks and expectations of a rate cut. Silver has been benefiting from gold so far, but recovering PMI data, especially in the US, might cause a change. High PMI means more economic activity and possibly more inflation. Additionally, the problems with sea transportation due to Houthi attacks can further damage the fight against inflation and force central banks to remain hawkish for a longer period.

(XAGUSD Daily Chart)

Today’s GDP and tomorrow’s PCE data will be crucial for silver. Another strong data release from the US might be enough for silver to be rejected from the trendline again and target 21.90 first, then perhaps 21.40. A breakout, however, could lead the price of silver to the 23.40 resistance, and depending on the PCE data tomorrow, to 23.82 in the coming days.