The S&P 500 recovered well after Trump eased his stance on tariffs and comments regarding Powell. Since the start of February, the U.S. stock market has been in a clear downtrend, forming new lower highs and lower lows. Although the change in stance may have brought some relief to the market, risks remain. Despite Trump stating he wants lower tariffs with China, there is no clear indication of any official talks. Meanwhile, support for Xi is rising within China as he maintains a strong position against U.S. threats. If the situation between the U.S. and China does not improve soon, stock markets may start to feel the pressure again. 

This week, the economic calendar will be very busy for the U.S. The first GDP print for the first quarter, PCE, and payrolls are scheduled, with the week kicking off with JOLTS and consumer confidence data today. Traders will be watching closely for any hints about the impact of tariffs, though most of the data is expected to have only limited effects. GDP figures will reflect the trade deficit’s impact, and JOLTS may show minor negative effects as firms anticipate a slowdown. However, the key data to watch for tariff effects will be consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing reports, as these are higher-frequency indicators and could reveal early signs of pressure. 

(S&P 500 Mini – 240 Minute Chart) 

The S&P 500 is trending down, although the longer-term uptrend from 2020 remains intact. The 5600 level will be important this week. If the market can break and hold above it, a move toward the 5740–5840 zone may begin. However, after the recent upward reaction, momentum appears to be slowing. Good economic data or positive news from trade talks would likely be needed for a breakout. Otherwise, bulls who were caught off guard during the selloff may start to take some risk off around 5600, potentially shifting the momentum to the downside.